International statistician/sampling expert for SHARP+ SURVEY

TERMS OF REFERENCE

International statistician/sampling expert for SHARP+ SURVEY

BACKGROUND

This Terms of Reference was prepared within the framework of the FAO project (FVC), FVC/SEC/031/MUL project, “Climate Services and Sustainable Clean Water Solutions and Biodiversity Conservation for Resilient Agrifood Systems and Public Health in Central Asia: From Metrics to Impact”.

The project aims to strengthen climate-resilient agrifood and water systems in Central Asia that provide livelihoods, biodiversity and ecosystem services (impacts) by aligning agrifood systems transformation policies and practices with national climate change and biodiversity strategies, including national biodiversity targets.

To assess resilience and adaptive capacity at the household level, the FAO SHARP+ tool is provided for in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Currently, CAREC and FAO are at the stage of signing a cooperation agreement.

ITEM INFORMATION:

PURPOSE OF ATTRACTION

An international statistician/sampling expert is engaged to provide technical support in the development of statistically sound and feasible sampling methodologies for the application of the Self-evaluation and Holistic Assessment of climate resilience of farmers and Pastoralists (SHARP+) tool. The SHARP+ tool will be used to conduct self-assessment and integrated assessment of the climate resilience of farmers and pastoralists in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. 

MAIN TASKS:

It is necessary to determine representative approaches to sampling for each of the three countries and to accompany the work of local teams of interviewers. The development should take into account the following parameters:

-        Structure and specifics of the agricultural sector

-        The total number of farmers and/or agricultural enterprises

-        Geographical coverage of farms and production activities

-        SHARP+ key goals and indicators. 

SCOPE OF WORK:

Under the overall supervision of the relevant FAO Technical Lead and in close coordination with the SHARP+ Technical Team at FAO Headquarters and relevant FAO Country/Regional Teams, the International Statistician/Sampling Expert will provide technical support in the development of statistically sound and feasible sampling methodologies for the application of the SHARP+ tool in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

The expert will assess available national statistical and agricultural data and develop country-specific sampling frameworks that will allow the SHARP+ team to obtain reliable and sufficiently representative results while considering operational and resource constraints.

Particularly, the International Statistician/Sampling Expert will perform the following tasks:

1.         Review of SHARP+ sampling requirements and methodological framework

•           Review the objectives, methodology and questionnaire structure of the SHARP+ tool relevant to survey sampling and statistical analysis;

•           Review the information requirements necessary to generate representative and analytically meaningful SHARP+ results at country and, where relevant, sub-national levels;

•           Assess the implications of the SHARP+ methodology for sample selection, stratification, weighting and analysis;

•           Consult with the SHARP+ technical team at FAO Headquarters to clarify methodological and analytical requirements.

2. Assessment of the structure and coverage of agricultural enterprises in each country

For Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan:

•           Review available national statistical information on agricultural holdings, farms, farmers, livestock holders and other relevant agricultural population groups;

•           Assess the structure of agricultural holdings and identify relevant farm typologies and categories;

•           Review the geographical distribution of agricultural production and farming populations;

•           Identify relevant characteristics that may need to be reflected in the sampling design, such as farm size, production system, crop/livestock specialization, agro-ecological zone, geographic location and other relevant characteristics;

•           Identify available sampling frames and assess their suitability for SHARP+ implementation;

•           Identify key data gaps and limitations affecting the development of representative sampling frames;

•           Recommend the most appropriate available source(s) of sampling-frame data for each country.

3. Development of country-specific sampling methodologies

•           Develop an appropriate sampling methodology for each country based on the objectives and geographical scope of the SHARP+ application;

•           Determine whether a simple random, stratified, multi-stage, cluster or other sampling approach is most appropriate for each country;

•           Define appropriate sampling strata and/or domains based on the characteristics of the agricultural population and the analytical objectives of SHARP+;

•           Develop a practical approach for selecting survey units, including primary sampling units and individual farmers/farms, as applicable;

•           Define procedures for ensuring adequate representation of relevant farm types, geographic areas and other priority groups;

•           Provide recommendations on the application of sampling weights and adjustments for unequal probabilities of selection, non-response and other potential sources of bias.

4. Determination of representative sample sizes

•           Calculate the statistically appropriate sample size for SHARP+ implementation in each country;

•           Determine sample sizes based on appropriate assumptions regarding confidence levels, margins of error/precision, expected variability and design effects;

•           Assess the implications of different sample sizes for the reliability of national and, where relevant, sub-national estimates;

•           Develop alternative sample-size scenarios where appropriate, taking into account different levels of statistical precision and available implementation resources;

•           Recommend a final sample size for each country and provide a clear methodological justification;

•           Determine the recommended allocation of the sample across relevant geographic and/or farm-type strata.

5. Development of sampling frames and sample selection guidance

•           Develop or support the development of country-specific sampling frames for the SHARP+ survey;

•           Provide clear procedures for the selection of farms/farmers to be interviewed;

•           Prepare practical guidance for the SHARP+ country teams on the identification and selection of survey respondents;

•           Define procedures for replacement of selected respondents, where necessary, while minimizing potential sampling bias;

•           Provide recommendations for managing non-response and incomplete interviews;

•           Ensure that the sampling methodology is sufficiently practical to be implemented by national teams and enumerators.

6. Quality assurance and methodological validation

•           Review the proposed sampling methodologies with the SHARP+ technical team and relevant FAO country teams;

•           Present the proposed sampling approaches and sample-size calculations to relevant technical stakeholders;

•           Incorporate technical comments and recommendations into the final sampling methodologies;

•           Ensure consistency of the sampling approach across the three countries while allowing for country-specific adjustments where required;

•           Provide methodological advice during the initial implementation of the SHARP+ surveys, as required.

7. Technical support to SHARP+ team

•           Provide technical guidance to the SHARP+ team on sampling, representativeness, statistical inference and interpretation of survey results;

•           Advise on appropriate documentation of sampling procedures for reporting and publication of SHARP+ results;

•           Support the team in interpreting the implications of sampling design and limitations when presenting SHARP+ findings;

•           Provide additional statistical advice related to the survey implementation and analysis, as requested by the technical supervisor.

REPORTING:

Based on the results of the task, the following should be prepared:

1. Inception note including review of SHARP+ sampling requirements, proposed methodology, workplan and data requirements

2. Assessment of agricultural populations, farm typologies and available sampling frames for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

3. Draft country-specific sampling methodologies and preliminary sample-size calculations

4. Recommended representative sample sizes and sample allocation for each country, with methodological justification

5. Sampling frame and respondent-selection guidance for the three countries

6. Final consolidated sampling methodology report incorporating comments from the SHARP+ technical team and FAO country teams

7. Technical consultations/presentations and additional statistical support during preparation and initial implementation of SHARP+ surveys

EXPECTED KEY OUTPUTS:

The assignment is expected to result in:

1.         Country-level assessment of agricultural populations and available sampling frames for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan;

2.         Country-specific sampling methodologies for SHARP+ implementation;

3.         Recommended representative sample sizes for each country, including the methodological assumptions and calculations used;

4.         Recommended sample allocation across relevant geographic areas, farm types and/or other sampling strata;

5.         Sampling frame and respondent selection guidance, including procedures for non-response and replacement;

6.         Consolidated methodological report documenting the sampling approach for all three countries;

7.         Technical presentations/consultations with the SHARP+ team and relevant country teams;

8.         Ad-hoc statistical advice during the initial application of the sampling methodology, as required. 

INDICATORS FOR ASSESSING THE RESULTS OF WORK:

The quality of the work performed will be evaluated on the basis of:

●                 compliance of the developed methodology with the requirements of SHARP+;

●                 the validity of the proposed sample design;

●                 the validity of the calculation of sample sizes;

●                 the quality of the analysis of the available sampling bases;

●                 practical implementation of the proposed methodology;

●                 ensuring the necessary level of representativeness;

●                 considering the absence of respondents' response;

●                 consistency of methodology among the three countries;

●                 compliance with agreed deadlines;

●                 quality of interaction with SHARP+ FAO and FAO country teams. 

PAYMENT TERMS:

The amount of the consultant's remuneration will be determined based on the experience and qualifications of the selected candidate and agreed upon during the interview

Payment for services will be carried out based on the provision by the contractor of the results of work provided for by the terms of reference and their approval.

CAREC is not responsible for taxes that will be levied on the amount specified in the contract. 

QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENTS:

The candidate must meet the following requirements:

●                      university degree and/or advanced degree in statistics, applied statistics, economics, agricultural statistics, data analysis or a related field;

●                 Proven professional experience in the development of sampling methodologies and the design of statistical sample surveys;

●                 experience in using sample weights and adjustments for unequal probabilities of selection and lack of respondents' responses;

●                 Experience in analysing agricultural, socio-economic or demographic data;

●                 experience in developing survey methodologies at the national and/or subnational level;

●                 the ability to develop statistical approaches that can be practically implemented by national teams;

●                 strong analytical and writing skills;

●                 Ability to work in an international and multi-country team. 

Will be an advantage:

●                 Experience with FAO;

●                 Experience with SHARP+

●                 Experience in conducting surveys among farmers, agricultural enterprises and/or pastoral communities;

●                 experience with national statistical services;

●                 experience in developing sampling frameworks based on agricultural censuses, farm registers and other official sources;

●                 knowledge of international standards and approaches to sample surveys;

●                 Experience in international projects.    

The application should be submitted by e-mail hrmanager@carececo.org with a copy of mariya.za777@gmail.com with the subject line "International Statistician / Sampling Expert for SHARP+ Survey".    

APPLICATION DEADLINE: October 30 inclusive.

Only shortlisted candidates will be invited for an interview.