The study was developed within the Volkswagen Foundation-funded project “Rural Community Resilience in Central Asia (CARe)” at the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), with institutional support, collaboration and logistical assistance from the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC).
The research examines how extreme weather, geography and household well-being jointly influence mobility and immobility in Kyrgyzstan. The authors combine nationally representative household panel data from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey for 2013–2022 with high-resolution climate data. They distinguish four outcomes: domestic mobility, international mobility, combined domestic-international mobility and immobility, and analyse exposure to dry spells, excessive rains, hot summers and cold winters.
The findings show that weather extremes are more strongly associated with international mobility and immobility than with domestic or combined mobility. Importantly, climate-related mobility is not simply a direct response to weather shocks. Household resources and living conditions matter greatly. Immobility is more common among households with lower levels of multidimensional well-being, while households with higher well-being display a wider range of mobility responses. The study also identifies important spatial spillovers: weather extremes in neighbouring districts can influence mobility decisions, especially in remote and high-elevation areas.
These results underline the need for climate adaptation policies that address both mobility and safe immobility. Social assistance, healthcare, emergency services and other forms of in-situ support can be especially important when climate stress affects several connected districts simultaneously. The authors also highlight the value of strengthening household capabilities and coordinating adaptation measures across administrative boundaries.
The article was authored by Barchynai Kimsanova, Thomas Herzfeld, Atabek Umirbekov, Kathleen Hermans, Daniel Müller and Nodir Djanibekov.