We are pleased to announce the publication of a new scientific paper authored by LESLIE project researchers, entitled: “Forecasting Channel Morphodynamics in the Ulken Almaty River (Ile Alatau, Kazakhstan)”, published in Water (MDPI), Volume 17, Issue 13 (2025).
This publication represents a significant contribution to the scientific outputs of the LESLIE project and reinforces our ongoing commitment to advancing applied research on sustainable land and water management in Central Asia.
Research Overview
The study focuses on the spatial and temporal evolution of the Ulken Almaty River, a glacier-fed mountain river in southeastern Kazakhstan. Using a combination of remote sensing, GIS-based morphometric analysis, and the Kalman filter forecast model implemented through the DSAS 5.1 tool in ArcGIS, the research team was able to quantify and predict patterns of erosion, accretion, and channel instability over a 10-year period (2012–2021), with forecasts extending to 2041.
Key findings include:
– Identification of critical zones of bank erosion and morphological instability, particularly in downstream reaches.
– Quantitative estimation of erosion/accretion rates and their spatial variability.
– Forecasts of future channel deformations under the influence of hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers.
– Practical applications for urban planning, flood risk mitigation, and riverbank protection in mountainous urban areas.
An International Research Effort
The paper was co-authored by LESLIE consortium members from:
– Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU)
– Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV – IIAMA)
The international collaboration highlights the LESLIE project’s strong emphasis on capacity building, scientific innovation, and environmental policy support for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The LESLIE project is implemented by an international consortium under financial support of the Erasmus+ Programme established by the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). The consortium comprises The Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), The University of Cassino and Southern Lazio (Unicas), University of Cyprus, Shokan Ualikhanov Kokshetau University (Ualikhanov University), Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU), Ahmet Yassawi University, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Fergana Polytechnic Institute, The Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers (TIIAME), Bukhara Institute of Natural Resources Management (TIIAME NRU), Bukhara State University, International Agriculture University, Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovations of the Republic of Uzbekistan .