We are pleased to announce the publication of the peer-reviewed article “Hydrodynamic modeling and risk assessment of surge events in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea” in the journal Natural Hazards (2026, Volume 122, Article 124). doi: 10.1007/s11069-025-07889-7.
This research is the result of cooperation between teams from Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), a research center, the Republican State Enterprise Kazhydromet, and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, reinforcing the LESLIE mission of connecting academic excellence with applied solutions for environmental risk management in Central Asia.
The Caspian Sea is undergoing long-term level decline while also experiencing recurrent wind-driven surges that can rapidly shift coastlines and disrupt navigation, port operations, and coastal infrastructure in Kazakhstan—especially along the shallow, low-gradient northeastern sector. Using historical observations from the national monitoring network, the authors analyzed 1,836 surge events recorded in the Kazakh sector (1940–2022), including 1,086 up-surges and 750 down-surges, and characterised their seasonality and associated wind patterns.
The authors explicitly acknowledge the contribution of the Erasmus+ CBHE project LESLIE (ERASMUS-EDU-2023-CBHE No. 101129032) in disseminating the research results, underlining the project’s role in amplifying high-impact scientific outputs and their uptake by stakeholders. The article is published open access under a Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).
Reference
Yeltay, A.G., Sairov, S.B., Tillakarim, T.A., Serikbay, N.T., Rakishev, D.B., Rodrigo-Clavero, M-E., Rodrigo-Ilarri, J. (2026). Hydrodynamic modeling and risk assessment of surge events in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea. Natural Hazards, 122:124. doi: 10.1007/s11069-025-07889-7.
The LESLIE project is implemented by an international consortium under financial support of the Erasmus+ Programme established by the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). The consortium comprises The Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), The University of Cassino and Southern Lazio (Unicas), University of Cyprus, Shokan Ualikhanov Kokshetau University (Ualikhanov University), Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU), Ahmet Yassawi University, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Fergana Polytechnic Institute, The Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers (TIIAME), Bukhara Institute of Natural Resources Management (TIIAME NRU), Bukhara State University, International Agriculture University, Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovations of the Republic of Uzbekistan .